Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 11.293467 13.826027 16.653701 20.024641 23.912666 28.235183 33.382074
2026-02-01 7.709948 10.939650 14.954864 20.224393 26.861719 34.845464 45.066497
2026-02-08 5.518188 8.865877 13.409868 19.837113 28.482380 39.486272 54.300637
2026-02-15 4.035034 7.277951 12.044298 19.240230 29.469168 43.103652 62.209418
2026-02-22 3.278987 6.536542 11.656895 19.809374 31.916449 48.640757 72.798729
2026-03-01 2.535476 5.614947 10.800805 19.506266 32.995391 52.271860 80.918106
2026-03-08 2.029848 4.968765 10.245480 19.536744 34.482552 56.476619 89.961461
2026-03-15 1.518522 4.165070 9.266413 18.722246 34.542880 58.540224 95.985423
2026-03-22 1.288098 3.871427 9.136025 19.284600 36.770877 63.892438 106.976605
2026-03-29 1.070027 3.540554 8.871768 19.561121 38.520798 68.572056 117.139760
2026-04-05 0.899588 3.271132 8.677438 19.924391 40.412825 73.533818 127.900022
2026-04-12 0.764919 3.050924 8.543519 20.371651 42.456065 78.804773 139.312223
2026-04-19 0.584069 2.648527 7.973735 19.975440 43.109874 82.072100 148.093047
2026-04-26 0.472015 2.408418 7.729764 20.206465 44.919373 87.353048 160.329598
2026-05-03 0.355255 2.090531 7.225899 19.821661 45.541458 90.658632 169.519730
2026-05-10 0.257928 1.781315 6.665385 19.225299 45.688381 93.128958 177.416345
2026-05-17 0.216075 1.676885 6.631693 19.794107 48.119486 99.640178 192.171546
2026-05-24 0.160690 1.466828 6.245137 19.491183 48.786189 103.067388 201.903397
2026-05-31 0.124194 1.321685 6.013968 19.521643 50.114890 107.714305 213.829982
2026-06-07 0.083177 1.100447 5.474606 18.707644 49.616062 109.009654 220.071693
2026-06-14 0.068956 1.044181 5.474893 19.269654 52.060062 115.799824 235.986352
2026-06-21 0.054263 0.965056 5.372614 19.546005 53.899584 121.531557 250.228744
2026-06-28 0.043141 0.900362 5.306167 19.909054 55.947461 127.728168 265.465016